ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMarsborne pick
59%50%
Marsborne · 13 mapsedge Marsborne +9%For Fun · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%63%
Marsborne · 11 mapsnearly even -3%For Fun · 4 maps
Dust2For Fun ban
58%50%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +8%For Fun · 4 maps
MirageMarsborne ban
64%44%
Marsborne · 7 mapsedge Marsborne +20%For Fun · 5 maps
NukeMarsborne ban
56%44%
Marsborne · 5 mapsedge Marsborne +12%For Fun · 5 maps
AnubisFor Fun ban
67%50%
Marsborne · 5 mapsedge Marsborne +17%For Fun · 2 maps
DefaultFor Fun pick
67%50%
Marsborne · 2 mapsedge Marsborne +17%For Fun · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Mirage
2. BanFor Fun remove Anubis
3. PickMarsborne take Ancient
4. PickFor Fun take Default
5. BanFor Fun remove Dust2
6. BanMarsborne remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (60% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
Marsborne 58%For Fun 42%
The model gave 58% on Marsborne — the map was taken by For Fun.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
Marsborne 50%For Fun 50%
The model gave 50% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Dust2prediction correct25:22
Marsborne 58%For Fun 42%
The model gave 58% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 61%
Series resultMarsborne 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3