FRAG TAP Reloaded 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LAG#91 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoLAG pick
57%38%
Marsborne · 3 mapsedge Marsborne +19%LAG · 4 maps
Miragepossible decider
57%67%
Marsborne · 3 mapsedge LAG +10%LAG · 2 maps
AncientMarsborne pick
67%33%
Marsborne · 2 mapsedge Marsborne +34%LAG · 2 maps
AnubisLAG ban
50%50%
Marsborne · 2 mapsnearly even +0%LAG · 0 maps
NukeMarsborne ban
50%67%
Marsborne · 0 mapsedge LAG +17%LAG · 2 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
40%50%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge LAG +10%LAG · 0 maps
OverpassLAG ban
60%50%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge Marsborne +10%LAG · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Nuke
2. BanLAG remove Anubis
3. PickMarsborne take Ancient
4. PickLAG take Inferno
5. BanLAG remove Overpass
6. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (57% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
Marsborne 66%LAG 34%
The model gave 66% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Marsborne 43%LAG 57%
The model gave 57% on LAG — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 60%
Series resultMarsborne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2