NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#84 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LAG#95 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLAG ban
69%38%
Marsborne · 9 mapsedge Marsborne +31%LAG · 4 maps
InfernoMarsborne pick
75%50%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +25%LAG · 4 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
55%71%
Marsborne · 7 mapsedge LAG +16%LAG · 3 maps
MirageLAG ban
70%50%
Marsborne · 6 mapsedge Marsborne +20%LAG · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
63%44%
Marsborne · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +19%LAG · 5 maps
AnubisLAG pick
57%71%
Marsborne · 3 mapsedge LAG +14%LAG · 3 maps
DefaultMarsborne ban
50%50%
Marsborne · 0 mapsnearly even +0%LAG · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
2. BanLAG remove Ancient
3. PickMarsborne take Inferno
4. PickLAG take Anubis
5. BanLAG remove Mirage
6. BanMarsborne remove Default
DeciderNuke (63% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Marsborne 30%LAG 70%
The model gave 70% on LAG — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Marsborne 77%LAG 23%
The model gave 77% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 60%
Series resultMarsborne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2