Circuit X BLAST Open Porto 2026 North America Rising Event · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
regain#173 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientregain pick
60%67%
Marsborne · 6 mapsedge regain +7%regain · 8 maps
InfernoMarsborne pick
75%63%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +12%regain · 4 maps
Mirageregain ban
64%43%
Marsborne · 7 mapsedge Marsborne +21%regain · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
67%60%
Marsborne · 5 mapsedge Marsborne +7%regain · 1 map
Overpassregain ban
56%40%
Marsborne · 5 mapsedge Marsborne +16%regain · 1 map
Dust2Marsborne ban
50%67%
Marsborne · 2 mapsedge regain +17%regain · 2 maps
DefaultMarsborne ban
40%50%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge regain +10%regain · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
2. Banregain remove Overpass
3. PickMarsborne take Inferno
4. Pickregain take Ancient
5. Banregain remove Mirage
6. BanMarsborne remove Default
DeciderAnubis (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:1
Marsborne 40%regain 60%
The model gave 60% on regain — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Cacheprediction missed5:13
Marsborne 53%regain 47%
The model gave 53% on Marsborne — the map was taken by regain.
Mirageprediction missed14:16
Marsborne 70%regain 30%
The model gave 70% on Marsborne — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 60%
Series resultregain 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3