?
arrow_backBack to match
FRAG TAP Reloaded 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSportsBetExpert pick
63%67%
Marsborne · 4 mapsnearly even -4%SportsBetExpert · 5 maps
AnubisMarsborne ban
57%71%
Marsborne · 3 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +14%SportsBetExpert · 3 maps
AncientMarsborne pick
63%60%
Marsborne · 4 mapsnearly even +3%SportsBetExpert · 1 map
MirageSportsBetExpert ban
63%50%
Marsborne · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +13%SportsBetExpert · 0 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
40%67%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge SportsBetExpert +27%SportsBetExpert · 2 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%40%
Marsborne · 2 mapsedge Marsborne +10%SportsBetExpert · 1 map
NukeSportsBetExpert ban
50%40%
Marsborne · 0 mapsedge Marsborne +10%SportsBetExpert · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Nuke
3. PickMarsborne take Ancient
4. PickSportsBetExpert take Inferno
5. BanSportsBetExpert remove Mirage
6. BanMarsborne remove Anubis
DeciderOverpass (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
Marsborne 42%SportsBetExpert 58%
The model gave 58% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Marsborne 65%SportsBetExpert 35%
The model gave 65% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 60%
Series resultMarsborne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2