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FRAG University 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMarsborne pick
70%68%
Marsborne · 19 mapsnearly even +2%SportsBetExpert · 15 maps
MirageSportsBetExpert pick
71%81%
Marsborne · 10 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +10%SportsBetExpert · 17 maps
Dust2SportsBetExpert ban
60%50%
Marsborne · 11 mapsedge Marsborne +10%SportsBetExpert · 10 maps
NukeMarsborne ban
50%75%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +25%SportsBetExpert · 12 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
59%50%
Marsborne · 18 mapsedge Marsborne +9%SportsBetExpert · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
67%62%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +5%SportsBetExpert · 9 maps
CacheMarsborne ban
50%38%
Marsborne · 0 mapsedge Marsborne +12%SportsBetExpert · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Cache
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
3. PickMarsborne take Inferno
4. PickSportsBetExpert take Mirage
5. BanSportsBetExpert remove Dust2
6. BanMarsborne remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (67% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
Marsborne 54%SportsBetExpert 46%
The model gave 54% on Marsborne — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
Marsborne 23%SportsBetExpert 77%
The model gave 77% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 60%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2