FRAG 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#84 in the world · win 2:1series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Voca#92 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMarsborne pick
60%50%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge Marsborne +10%Voca · 0 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
50%40%
Marsborne · 0 mapsedge Marsborne +10%Voca · 1 map
InfernoVoca ban
60%50%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge Marsborne +10%Voca · 0 maps
OverpassVoca pick
50%40%
Marsborne · 0 mapsedge Marsborne +10%Voca · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
2. BanVoca remove Inferno
3. PickMarsborne take Ancient
4. PickVoca take Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
Marsborne 63%Voca 37%
The model gave 63% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Voca.
Overpassprediction correct16:14
Marsborne 57%Voca 43%
The model gave 57% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Mirageprediction correct13:3
Marsborne 50%Voca 50%
The model gave 50% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteVoca · 83%
Series resultMarsborne 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3