NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Marsborne#84 in the world · win 13:4series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 13:4
Without a Roof#119 in the world · loss 4:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientWithout a Roof ban
69%40%
Marsborne · 9 mapsedge Marsborne +29%Without a Roof · 1 map
Dust2Marsborne ban
55%60%
Marsborne · 7 mapsedge Without a Roof +5%Without a Roof · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
70%50%
Marsborne · 6 mapsedge Marsborne +20%Without a Roof · 2 maps
MirageMarsborne ban
63%50%
Marsborne · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +13%Without a Roof · 2 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
57%40%
Marsborne · 3 mapsedge Marsborne +17%Without a Roof · 1 map
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
57%50%
Marsborne · 3 mapsedge Marsborne +7%Without a Roof · 0 maps
OverpassMarsborne ban
50%50%
Marsborne · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Without a Roof · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
2. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
3. BanMarsborne remove Mirage
4. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
5. BanMarsborne remove Overpass
6. BanWithout a Roof remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (70% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
Marsborne 70%Without a Roof 30%
The model gave 70% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 59%
Series resultMarsborne 13:4
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1