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CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO5
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · loss 2:3
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Without a Roof#81 in the world · win 3:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMarsborne pick
71%68%
Marsborne · 17 mapsnearly even +3%Without a Roof · 15 maps
AncientMarsborne pick
65%50%
Marsborne · 16 mapsedge Marsborne +15%Without a Roof · 12 maps
MirageWithout a Roof pick
64%67%
Marsborne · 10 mapsnearly even -3%Without a Roof · 17 maps
Dust2possible decider
64%54%
Marsborne · 10 mapsedge Marsborne +10%Without a Roof · 9 maps
NukeWithout a Roof pick
50%58%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Without a Roof +8%Without a Roof · 8 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
67%60%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +7%Without a Roof · 1 map
CacheMarsborne ban
40%57%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge Without a Roof +17%Without a Roof · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Cache
2. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
3. PickMarsborne take Inferno
4. PickWithout a Roof take Mirage
5. PickMarsborne take Ancient
6. PickWithout a Roof take Nuke
DeciderDust2 (64% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Marsborne 50%Without a Roof 50%
The model gave 50% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Dust2prediction missed12:16
Marsborne 58%Without a Roof 42%
The model gave 58% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
Marsborne 57%Without a Roof 43%
The model gave 57% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Mirageprediction missed16:14
Marsborne 44%Without a Roof 56%
The model gave 56% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
Marsborne 68%Without a Roof 32%
The model gave 68% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 62%
Series resultWithout a Roof 2:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 5