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Parken Challenger Championship Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
MASONIC#187 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Inner Circle Academy ban
56%40%
MASONIC · 5 mapsedge MASONIC +16%Inner Circle Academy · 1 map
AncientMASONIC pick
50%40%
MASONIC · 4 mapsedge MASONIC +10%Inner Circle Academy · 1 map
Nukepossible decider
57%67%
MASONIC · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +10%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
OverpassMASONIC ban
50%67%
MASONIC · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +17%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
43%50%
MASONIC · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +7%Inner Circle Academy · 0 maps
AnubisMASONIC ban
60%50%
MASONIC · 1 mapedge MASONIC +10%Inner Circle Academy · 0 maps
DefaultInner Circle Academy pick
40%50%
MASONIC · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +10%Inner Circle Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMASONIC remove Overpass
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickMASONIC take Ancient
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Default
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Dust2
6. BanMASONIC remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (57% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
MASONIC 43%Inner Circle Academy 57%
The model gave 57% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by MASONIC.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
MASONIC 57%Inner Circle Academy 43%
The model gave 57% on MASONIC — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Anubisprediction missed13:16
MASONIC 60%Inner Circle Academy 40%
The model gave 60% on MASONIC — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 58%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3