POWER Ligaen Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
MASONIC#187 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MASQwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMASQ ban
40%50%
MASONIC · 6 mapsedge MASQ +10%MASQ · 0 maps
Dust2MASQ ban
50%50%
MASONIC · 6 mapsnearly even +0%MASQ · 0 maps
NukeMASONIC pick
67%60%
MASONIC · 5 mapsedge MASONIC +7%MASQ · 1 map
InfernoMASONIC ban
50%50%
MASONIC · 4 mapsnearly even +0%MASQ · 0 maps
AnubisMASONIC ban
50%50%
MASONIC · 2 mapsnearly even +0%MASQ · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%50%
MASONIC · 2 mapsnearly even +0%MASQ · 0 maps
DefaultMASQ pick
40%50%
MASONIC · 1 mapedge MASQ +10%MASQ · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMASONIC remove Anubis
2. BanMASQ remove Dust2
3. PickMASONIC take Nuke
4. PickMASQ take Default
5. BanMASQ remove Ancient
6. BanMASONIC remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct17:19
MASONIC 47%MASQ 53%
The model gave 53% on MASQ — the map was taken by MASQ.
Overpassprediction correct13:10
MASONIC 53%MASQ 47%
The model gave 53% on MASONIC — the map was taken by MASONIC.
Ancientprediction correct13:16
MASONIC 40%MASQ 60%
The model gave 60% on MASQ — the map was taken by MASQ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMASONIC · 64%
Series resultMASQ 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3