ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
MAYBE#173 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ENCE#112 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMAYBE pick
47%56%
MAYBE · 15 mapsedge ENCE +9%ENCE · 21 map
Dust2ENCE ban
42%44%
MAYBE · 8 mapsnearly even -2%ENCE · 12 maps
NukeENCE pick
43%50%
MAYBE · 3 mapsedge ENCE +7%ENCE · 14 maps
Cachepossible decider
36%46%
MAYBE · 7 mapsedge ENCE +10%ENCE · 9 maps
AncientENCE ban
36%22%
MAYBE · 10 mapsedge MAYBE +14%ENCE · 5 maps
AnubisMAYBE ban
50%54%
MAYBE · 4 mapsnearly even -4%ENCE · 9 maps
InfernoMAYBE ban
50%59%
MAYBE · 0 mapsedge ENCE +9%ENCE · 13 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMAYBE remove Inferno
2. BanENCE remove Ancient
3. PickMAYBE take Mirage
4. PickENCE take Nuke
5. BanENCE remove Dust2
6. BanMAYBE remove Anubis
DeciderCache (36% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct3:13
MAYBE 44%ENCE 56%
The model gave 56% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
MAYBE 40%ENCE 60%
The model gave 60% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Model check result
Model favoriteENCE · 60%
Series resultENCE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2