Tipsport Open Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
MAYBE#173 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMAYBE ban
33%67%
MAYBE · 2 mapsedge Jam +34%Jam · 2 maps
AnubisJam pick
50%60%
MAYBE · 2 mapsedge Jam +10%Jam · 1 map
MirageMAYBE pick
50%60%
MAYBE · 0 mapsedge Jam +10%Jam · 1 map
NukeJam ban
60%50%
MAYBE · 1 mapedge MAYBE +10%Jam · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMAYBE remove Ancient
2. BanJam remove Nuke
3. PickMAYBE take Mirage
4. PickJam take Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
MAYBE 18%Jam 82%
The model gave 82% on Jam — the map was taken by Jam.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
MAYBE 43%Jam 57%
The model gave 57% on Jam — the map was taken by MAYBE.
Dust2prediction missed6:13
MAYBE 50%Jam 50%
The model gave 50% on MAYBE — the map was taken by Jam.
Model check result
Model favoriteJam · 50%
Series resultJam 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3