ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
MAYBE#176 in the world · win 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LPH#166 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLPH pick
47%58%
MAYBE · 13 mapsedge LPH +11%LPH · 15 maps
MirageMAYBE pick
46%57%
MAYBE · 20 mapsedge LPH +11%LPH · 3 maps
NukeMAYBE ban
33%53%
MAYBE · 5 mapsedge LPH +20%LPH · 13 maps
Dust2possible decider
33%50%
MAYBE · 11 mapsedge LPH +17%LPH · 6 maps
AnubisLPH ban
50%38%
MAYBE · 4 mapsedge MAYBE +12%LPH · 9 maps
CacheLPH ban
38%29%
MAYBE · 9 mapsedge MAYBE +9%LPH · 3 maps
InfernoMAYBE ban
50%73%
MAYBE · 0 mapsedge LPH +23%LPH · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMAYBE remove Inferno
2. BanLPH remove Cache
3. PickMAYBE take Mirage
4. PickLPH take Ancient
5. BanLPH remove Anubis
6. BanMAYBE remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed19:17
MAYBE 42%LPH 58%
The model gave 58% on LPH — the map was taken by MAYBE.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
MAYBE 28%LPH 72%
The model gave 72% on LPH — the map was taken by MAYBE.
Model check result
Model favoriteLPH · 53%
Series resultMAYBE 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2