Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
megoshort#179 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:1
ASTRAL#97 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemegoshort pick
38%55%
megoshort · 4 mapsedge ASTRAL +17%ASTRAL · 7 maps
AncientASTRAL pick
50%57%
megoshort · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +7%ASTRAL · 10 maps
Dust2megoshort ban
43%50%
megoshort · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +7%ASTRAL · 6 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
50%30%
megoshort · 0 mapsedge megoshort +20%ASTRAL · 6 maps
Nukemegoshort ban
50%57%
megoshort · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +7%ASTRAL · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%60%
megoshort · 1 mapnearly even +0%ASTRAL · 1 map
DefaultASTRAL ban
40%50%
megoshort · 1 mapedge ASTRAL +10%ASTRAL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
2. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
3. Pickmegoshort take Mirage
4. PickASTRAL take Ancient
5. BanASTRAL remove Default
6. Banmegoshort remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
megoshort 40%ASTRAL 60%
The model gave 60% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 67%
Series resultASTRAL 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1