CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
megoshort#179 in the world · win 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
mellren#94 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
43%70%
megoshort · 10 mapsedge mellren +27%mellren · 16 maps
Ancientmegoshort pick
62%64%
megoshort · 9 mapsnearly even -2%mellren · 10 maps
Dust2mellren ban
54%55%
megoshort · 9 mapsnearly even -1%mellren · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
38%60%
megoshort · 4 mapsedge mellren +22%mellren · 11 maps
Defaultmellren ban
40%50%
megoshort · 6 mapsedge mellren +10%mellren · 4 maps
Nukemegoshort ban
50%18%
megoshort · 0 mapsedge megoshort +32%mellren · 7 maps
Anubismegoshort ban
57%71%
megoshort · 3 mapsedge mellren +14%mellren · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
2. Banmellren remove Dust2
3. Pickmegoshort take Ancient
4. Pickmellren take Mirage
5. Banmellren remove Default
6. Banmegoshort remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (38% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
megoshort 26%mellren 74%
The model gave 74% on mellren — the map was taken by megoshort.
Ancientprediction missed5:13
megoshort 50%mellren 50%
The model gave 50% on megoshort — the map was taken by mellren.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
megoshort 24%mellren 76%
The model gave 76% on mellren — the map was taken by megoshort.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 59%
Series resultmegoshort 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3