CCT 2026 South America Series 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ALKA#129 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
50%69%
MEIA NOITE · 10 mapsedge ALKA +19%ALKA · 28 maps
Ancientpossible decider
31%48%
MEIA NOITE · 12 mapsedge ALKA +17%ALKA · 23 maps
MirageALKA ban
38%50%
MEIA NOITE · 9 mapsedge ALKA +12%ALKA · 12 maps
InfernoMEIA NOITE ban
57%53%
MEIA NOITE · 3 mapsnearly even +4%ALKA · 13 maps
NukeALKA ban
50%43%
MEIA NOITE · 6 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +7%ALKA · 10 maps
CacheMEIA NOITE ban
33%45%
MEIA NOITE · 5 mapsedge ALKA +12%ALKA · 7 maps
DefaultMEIA NOITE pick
80%40%
MEIA NOITE · 6 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +40%ALKA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMEIA NOITE remove Inferno
2. BanALKA remove Nuke
3. PickMEIA NOITE take Default
4. PickALKA take Dust2
5. BanALKA remove Mirage
6. BanMEIA NOITE remove Cache
DeciderAncient (31% / 48%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
MEIA NOITE 60%ALKA 40%
The model gave 60% on MEIA NOITE — the map was taken by ALKA.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
MEIA NOITE 29%ALKA 71%
The model gave 71% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 73%
Series resultALKA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2