CCT 2026 South America Series 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMEIA NOITE pick
45%40%
MEIA NOITE · 7 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +5%Sementes do Mal · 1 map
AncientMEIA NOITE ban
38%50%
MEIA NOITE · 4 mapsedge Sementes do Mal +12%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
Dust2Sementes do Mal ban
50%50%
MEIA NOITE · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
InfernoSementes do Mal ban
67%40%
MEIA NOITE · 2 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +27%Sementes do Mal · 1 map
CacheSementes do Mal pick
33%50%
MEIA NOITE · 2 mapsedge Sementes do Mal +17%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
MEIA NOITE · 1 mapedge MEIA NOITE +10%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
NukeMEIA NOITE ban
40%50%
MEIA NOITE · 1 mapedge Sementes do Mal +10%Sementes do Mal · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMEIA NOITE remove Nuke
2. BanSementes do Mal remove Dust2
3. PickMEIA NOITE take Mirage
4. PickSementes do Mal take Cache
5. BanSementes do Mal remove Inferno
6. BanMEIA NOITE remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:5
MEIA NOITE 31%Sementes do Mal 69%
The model gave 69% on Sementes do Mal — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
MEIA NOITE 60%Sementes do Mal 40%
The model gave 60% on MEIA NOITE — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteSementes do Mal · 56%
Series resultMEIA NOITE 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2