CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
mellren#94 in the world · win 2:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Permitta#103 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
67%56%
mellren · 14 mapsedge mellren +11%Permitta · 12 maps
Nukemellren ban
22%46%
mellren · 5 mapsedge Permitta +24%Permitta · 20 maps
AncientPermitta pick
58%42%
mellren · 8 mapsedge mellren +16%Permitta · 15 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
55%30%
mellren · 7 mapsedge mellren +25%Permitta · 6 maps
Anubispossible decider
71%46%
mellren · 3 mapsedge mellren +25%Permitta · 9 maps
InfernoPermitta ban
60%50%
mellren · 11 mapsedge mellren +10%Permitta · 0 maps
Defaultmellren ban
57%33%
mellren · 3 mapsedge mellren +24%Permitta · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmellren remove Nuke
2. BanPermitta remove Dust2
3. Pickmellren take Mirage
4. PickPermitta take Ancient
5. BanPermitta remove Inferno
6. Banmellren remove Default
DeciderAnubis (71% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
mellren 23%Permitta 77%
The model gave 77% on Permitta — the map was taken by Permitta.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
mellren 64%Permitta 36%
The model gave 64% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
mellren 66%Permitta 34%
The model gave 66% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 54%
Series resultmellren 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3