ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
METANOIA Wolves#210 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BORRACHEIROS ban
40%46%
METANOIA Wolves · 16 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +6%BORRACHEIROS · 9 maps
AncientMETANOIA Wolves pick
56%50%
METANOIA Wolves · 12 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +6%BORRACHEIROS · 12 maps
MirageMETANOIA Wolves ban
15%47%
METANOIA Wolves · 9 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +32%BORRACHEIROS · 11 maps
AnubisBORRACHEIROS pick
50%58%
METANOIA Wolves · 4 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +8%BORRACHEIROS · 8 maps
Defaultpossible decider
38%60%
METANOIA Wolves · 4 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +22%BORRACHEIROS · 6 maps
NukeBORRACHEIROS ban
33%33%
METANOIA Wolves · 5 mapsnearly even +0%BORRACHEIROS · 5 maps
InfernoMETANOIA Wolves ban
33%36%
METANOIA Wolves · 2 mapsnearly even -3%BORRACHEIROS · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Mirage
2. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Nuke
3. PickMETANOIA Wolves take Ancient
4. PickBORRACHEIROS take Anubis
5. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Dust2
6. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (38% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed12:16
METANOIA Wolves 59%BORRACHEIROS 41%
The model gave 59% on METANOIA Wolves — the map was taken by BORRACHEIROS.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
METANOIA Wolves 39%BORRACHEIROS 61%
The model gave 61% on BORRACHEIROS — the map was taken by METANOIA Wolves.
Dust2prediction correct2:13
METANOIA Wolves 44%BORRACHEIROS 56%
The model gave 56% on BORRACHEIROS — the map was taken by BORRACHEIROS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBORRACHEIROS · 68%
Series resultBORRACHEIROS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3