Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South America Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
METANOIA Wolves#210 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MIBR Academy#134 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMETANOIA Wolves pick
44%43%
METANOIA Wolves · 5 mapsnearly even +1%MIBR Academy · 10 maps
Dust2MIBR Academy ban
50%33%
METANOIA Wolves · 10 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +17%MIBR Academy · 5 maps
NukeMIBR Academy pick
57%56%
METANOIA Wolves · 3 mapsnearly even +1%MIBR Academy · 12 maps
MirageMETANOIA Wolves ban
33%62%
METANOIA Wolves · 2 mapsedge MIBR Academy +29%MIBR Academy · 9 maps
Defaultpossible decider
56%71%
METANOIA Wolves · 5 mapsedge MIBR Academy +15%MIBR Academy · 3 maps
AnubisMETANOIA Wolves ban
29%50%
METANOIA Wolves · 3 mapsedge MIBR Academy +21%MIBR Academy · 4 maps
OverpassMIBR Academy ban
40%38%
METANOIA Wolves · 1 mapnearly even +2%MIBR Academy · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Mirage
2. BanMIBR Academy remove Dust2
3. PickMETANOIA Wolves take Ancient
4. PickMIBR Academy take Nuke
5. BanMIBR Academy remove Overpass
6. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (56% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct19:17
METANOIA Wolves 55%MIBR Academy 45%
The model gave 55% on METANOIA Wolves — the map was taken by METANOIA Wolves.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
METANOIA Wolves 48%MIBR Academy 52%
The model gave 52% on MIBR Academy — the map was taken by MIBR Academy.
Cacheprediction missed9:13
METANOIA Wolves 50%MIBR Academy 50%
The model gave 50% on METANOIA Wolves — the map was taken by MIBR Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteMIBR Academy · 54%
Series resultMIBR Academy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3