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BetBoom Storm Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
METANOIA Wolves#127 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
paiN Academy#184 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2METANOIA Wolves pick
50%60%
METANOIA Wolves · 2 mapsedge paiN Academy +10%paiN Academy · 1 map
NukepaiN Academy pick
50%50%
METANOIA Wolves · 2 mapsnearly even +0%paiN Academy · 0 maps
AncientpaiN Academy ban
60%50%
METANOIA Wolves · 1 mapedge METANOIA Wolves +10%paiN Academy · 0 maps
AnubisMETANOIA Wolves ban
50%40%
METANOIA Wolves · 0 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +10%paiN Academy · 1 map
DefaultpaiN Academy ban
60%50%
METANOIA Wolves · 1 mapedge METANOIA Wolves +10%paiN Academy · 0 maps
MirageMETANOIA Wolves ban
50%60%
METANOIA Wolves · 0 mapsedge paiN Academy +10%paiN Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Mirage
2. BanpaiN Academy remove Ancient
3. PickMETANOIA Wolves take Dust2
4. PickpaiN Academy take Nuke
5. BanpaiN Academy remove Default
6. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
METANOIA Wolves 37%paiN Academy 63%
The model gave 63% on paiN Academy — the map was taken by METANOIA Wolves.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
METANOIA Wolves 53%paiN Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on METANOIA Wolves — the map was taken by paiN Academy.
Anubisprediction missed6:13
METANOIA Wolves 60%paiN Academy 40%
The model gave 60% on METANOIA Wolves — the map was taken by paiN Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteMETANOIA Wolves · 57%
Series resultpaiN Academy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3