ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Metizport#52 in the world · win 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fire Flux#103 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFire Flux ban
64%36%
Metizport · 7 mapsedge Metizport +28%Fire Flux · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%55%
Metizport · 6 mapsedge Fire Flux +5%Fire Flux · 7 maps
NukeMetizport pick
46%63%
Metizport · 9 mapsedge Fire Flux +17%Fire Flux · 4 maps
Dust2Metizport ban
50%56%
Metizport · 0 mapsedge Fire Flux +6%Fire Flux · 12 maps
AnubisFire Flux pick
57%67%
Metizport · 3 mapsedge Fire Flux +10%Fire Flux · 8 maps
CacheMetizport ban
40%45%
Metizport · 1 mapedge Fire Flux +5%Fire Flux · 7 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
63%57%
Metizport · 4 mapsedge Metizport +6%Fire Flux · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMetizport remove Dust2
2. BanFire Flux remove Mirage
3. PickMetizport take Nuke
4. PickFire Flux take Anubis
5. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
6. BanMetizport remove Cache
DeciderInferno (50% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:7
Metizport 37%Fire Flux 63%
The model gave 63% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Metizport.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
Metizport 58%Fire Flux 42%
The model gave 58% on Metizport — the map was taken by Metizport.
Model check result
Model favoriteMetizport · 64%
Series resultMetizport 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2