Stake Ranked Episode 6 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Metizport#65 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GenOne#121 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMetizport pick
58%45%
Metizport · 20 mapsedge Metizport +13%GenOne · 16 maps
Dust2Metizport ban
50%57%
Metizport · 0 mapsedge GenOne +7%GenOne · 33 maps
AncientMetizport ban
62%64%
Metizport · 9 mapsnearly even -2%GenOne · 21 map
Infernopossible decider
61%60%
Metizport · 14 mapsnearly even +1%GenOne · 16 maps
AnubisGenOne pick
62%76%
Metizport · 9 mapsedge GenOne +14%GenOne · 13 maps
CacheGenOne ban
45%36%
Metizport · 7 mapsedge Metizport +9%GenOne · 10 maps
MirageGenOne ban
59%50%
Metizport · 13 mapsedge Metizport +9%GenOne · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMetizport remove Dust2
2. BanGenOne remove Mirage
3. PickMetizport take Nuke
4. PickGenOne take Anubis
5. BanGenOne remove Cache
6. BanMetizport remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (61% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:3
Metizport 57%GenOne 43%
The model gave 57% on Metizport — the map was taken by Metizport.
Nukeprediction correct13:2
Metizport 66%GenOne 34%
The model gave 66% on Metizport — the map was taken by Metizport.
Model check result
Model favoriteMetizport · 62%
Series resultMetizport 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2