Tipsport Open Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Metizport#52 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMetizport pick
52%52%
Metizport · 17 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle Academy · 17 maps
AncientMetizport ban
62%50%
Metizport · 9 mapsedge Metizport +12%Inner Circle Academy · 24 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy pick
55%63%
Metizport · 7 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +8%Inner Circle Academy · 23 maps
Dust2Metizport ban
50%61%
Metizport · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +11%Inner Circle Academy · 29 maps
Miragepossible decider
63%53%
Metizport · 12 mapsedge Metizport +10%Inner Circle Academy · 15 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
61%43%
Metizport · 14 mapsedge Metizport +18%Inner Circle Academy · 3 maps
CacheInner Circle Academy ban
50%42%
Metizport · 6 mapsedge Metizport +8%Inner Circle Academy · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMetizport remove Dust2
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickMetizport take Nuke
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Anubis
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Cache
6. BanMetizport remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (63% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:9
Metizport 39%Inner Circle Academy 61%
The model gave 61% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Metizport.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Metizport 53%Inner Circle Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on Metizport — the map was taken by Metizport.
Model check result
Model favoriteMetizport · 66%
Series resultMetizport 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2