BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Metizport#52 in the world · loss 9:13series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 9:13
RBLS#93 in the world · win 13:9The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMetizport ban
50%58%
Metizport · 0 mapsedge RBLS +8%RBLS · 8 maps
OverpassRBLS ban
40%43%
Metizport · 1 mapnearly even -3%RBLS · 3 maps
Dust2Metizport ban
50%57%
Metizport · 0 mapsedge RBLS +7%RBLS · 3 maps
AnubisRBLS ban
50%33%
Metizport · 0 mapsedge Metizport +17%RBLS · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
Metizport · 1 mapnearly even +0%RBLS · 1 map
InfernoMetizport ban
50%67%
Metizport · 0 mapsedge RBLS +17%RBLS · 2 maps
AncientRBLS ban
50%40%
Metizport · 0 mapsedge Metizport +10%RBLS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMetizport remove Inferno
2. BanRBLS remove Ancient
3. BanMetizport remove Dust2
4. BanRBLS remove Anubis
5. BanMetizport remove Nuke
6. BanRBLS remove Overpass
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct9:13
Metizport 47%RBLS 53%
The model gave 53% on RBLS — the map was taken by RBLS.
Model check result
Model favoriteRBLS · 52%
Series resultRBLS 9:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1