Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South America Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
MIBR Academy#134 in the world · win 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Isurus#186 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Isurus pick
38%53%
MIBR Academy · 4 mapsedge Isurus +15%Isurus · 13 maps
AncientIsurus ban
50%55%
MIBR Academy · 4 mapsedge Isurus +5%Isurus · 7 maps
MirageMIBR Academy pick
56%60%
MIBR Academy · 5 mapsnearly even -4%Isurus · 6 maps
NukeIsurus ban
60%50%
MIBR Academy · 6 mapsedge MIBR Academy +10%Isurus · 4 maps
OverpassMIBR Academy ban
43%43%
MIBR Academy · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Isurus · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%71%
MIBR Academy · 2 mapsnearly even -4%Isurus · 3 maps
InfernoMIBR Academy ban
50%44%
MIBR Academy · 0 mapsedge MIBR Academy +6%Isurus · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMIBR Academy remove Inferno
2. BanIsurus remove Nuke
3. PickMIBR Academy take Mirage
4. PickIsurus take Dust2
5. BanIsurus remove Ancient
6. BanMIBR Academy remove Overpass
DeciderDefault (67% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
MIBR Academy 48%Isurus 52%
The model gave 52% on Isurus — the map was taken by MIBR Academy.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
MIBR Academy 42%Isurus 58%
The model gave 58% on Isurus — the map was taken by MIBR Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteIsurus · 53%
Series resultMIBR Academy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2