BetBoom Storm Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
MIBR fe#203 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
paiN Academy#286 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2MIBR fe pick
40%25%
MIBR fe · 1 mapedge MIBR fe +15%paiN Academy · 4 maps
MiragepaiN Academy pick
40%50%
MIBR fe · 1 mapedge paiN Academy +10%paiN Academy · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%50%
MIBR fe · 1 mapedge paiN Academy +10%paiN Academy · 2 maps
AnubisMIBR fe ban
50%50%
MIBR fe · 0 mapsnearly even +0%paiN Academy · 2 maps
OverpasspaiN Academy ban
50%50%
MIBR fe · 0 mapsnearly even +0%paiN Academy · 2 maps
InfernopaiN Academy ban
50%60%
MIBR fe · 0 mapsedge paiN Academy +10%paiN Academy · 1 map
NukeMIBR fe ban
50%60%
MIBR fe · 0 mapsedge paiN Academy +10%paiN Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMIBR fe remove Nuke
2. BanpaiN Academy remove Inferno
3. PickMIBR fe take Dust2
4. PickpaiN Academy take Mirage
5. BanpaiN Academy remove Overpass
6. BanMIBR fe remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed3:13
MIBR fe 69%paiN Academy 31%
The model gave 69% on MIBR fe — the map was taken by paiN Academy.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
MIBR fe 37%paiN Academy 63%
The model gave 63% on paiN Academy — the map was taken by paiN Academy.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN Academy · 54%
Series resultpaiN Academy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2