IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
MIBR#12 in the world · loss 8:13series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 8:13
BIG#27 in the world · win 13:8The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%56%
MIBR · 4 mapsedge BIG +6%BIG · 5 maps
AncientBIG ban
50%43%
MIBR · 2 mapsedge MIBR +7%BIG · 3 maps
NukeBIG ban
67%43%
MIBR · 2 mapsedge MIBR +24%BIG · 3 maps
InfernoMIBR ban
43%60%
MIBR · 3 mapsedge BIG +17%BIG · 1 map
OverpassMIBR ban
40%43%
MIBR · 1 mapnearly even -3%BIG · 3 maps
AnubisBIG ban
67%40%
MIBR · 2 mapsedge MIBR +27%BIG · 1 map
Dust2MIBR ban
50%60%
MIBR · 0 mapsedge BIG +10%BIG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMIBR remove Dust2
2. BanBIG remove Nuke
3. BanMIBR remove Overpass
4. BanBIG remove Anubis
5. BanMIBR remove Inferno
6. BanBIG remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
MIBR 33%BIG 67%
The model gave 67% on BIG — the map was taken by BIG.
Model check result
Model favoriteMIBR · 66%
Series resultBIG 8:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1