IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
MIBR#12 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lynn Vision#39 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2MIBR ban
50%67%
MIBR · 0 mapsedge Lynn Vision +17%Lynn Vision · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%56%
MIBR · 2 mapsedge Lynn Vision +6%Lynn Vision · 5 maps
InfernoMIBR ban
33%43%
MIBR · 2 mapsedge Lynn Vision +10%Lynn Vision · 3 maps
NukeLynn Vision ban
60%57%
MIBR · 1 mapnearly even +3%Lynn Vision · 3 maps
AnubisMIBR pick
60%50%
MIBR · 1 mapedge MIBR +10%Lynn Vision · 2 maps
MirageLynn Vision ban
57%50%
MIBR · 3 mapsedge MIBR +7%Lynn Vision · 0 maps
OverpassLynn Vision pick
40%67%
MIBR · 1 mapedge Lynn Vision +27%Lynn Vision · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMIBR remove Dust2
2. BanLynn Vision remove Mirage
3. PickMIBR take Anubis
4. PickLynn Vision take Overpass
5. BanLynn Vision remove Nuke
6. BanMIBR remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
MIBR 63%Lynn Vision 37%
The model gave 63% on MIBR — the map was taken by MIBR.
Infernoprediction missed13:2
MIBR 37%Lynn Vision 63%
The model gave 63% on Lynn Vision — the map was taken by MIBR.
Model check result
Model favoriteMIBR · 61%
Series resultMIBR 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2