ESEA Intermediate Season 58 Oceania · BO3
result vs prediction
Mindfreak#129 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMindfreak pick
44%57%
Mindfreak · 14 mapsedge LFO 8 +13%LFO 8 · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
42%43%
Mindfreak · 8 mapsnearly even -1%LFO 8 · 3 maps
MirageLFO 8 ban
67%40%
Mindfreak · 8 mapsedge Mindfreak +27%LFO 8 · 1 map
AnubisMindfreak ban
33%50%
Mindfreak · 5 mapsedge LFO 8 +17%LFO 8 · 0 maps
AncientLFO 8 ban
50%33%
Mindfreak · 2 mapsedge Mindfreak +17%LFO 8 · 2 maps
Dust2Mindfreak ban
33%40%
Mindfreak · 2 mapsedge LFO 8 +7%LFO 8 · 1 map
CacheLFO 8 pick
50%67%
Mindfreak · 0 mapsedge LFO 8 +17%LFO 8 · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMindfreak remove Dust2
2. BanLFO 8 remove Mirage
3. PickMindfreak take Inferno
4. PickLFO 8 take Cache
5. BanLFO 8 remove Ancient
6. BanMindfreak remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (42% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
Mindfreak 64%LFO 8 36%
The model gave 64% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by LFO 8.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
Mindfreak 40%LFO 8 60%
The model gave 60% on LFO 8 — the map was taken by LFO 8.
Model check result
Model favoriteMindfreak · 61%
Series resultLFO 8 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2