ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#196 in the world · win 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisMARKandLARRY ban
67%43%
Rooster · 8 mapsedge Rooster +24%MARKandLARRY · 3 maps
InfernoRooster ban
50%38%
Rooster · 6 mapsedge Rooster +12%MARKandLARRY · 4 maps
MirageMARKandLARRY pick
55%57%
Rooster · 7 mapsnearly even -2%MARKandLARRY · 3 maps
Dust2Rooster pick
56%50%
Rooster · 5 mapsedge Rooster +6%MARKandLARRY · 2 maps
NukeRooster ban
33%50%
Rooster · 5 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +17%MARKandLARRY · 2 maps
Overpasspossible decider
40%50%
Rooster · 1 mapedge MARKandLARRY +10%MARKandLARRY · 2 maps
CacheMARKandLARRY ban
60%50%
Rooster · 1 mapedge Rooster +10%MARKandLARRY · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Nuke
2. BanMARKandLARRY remove Anubis
3. PickRooster take Dust2
4. PickMARKandLARRY take Mirage
5. BanMARKandLARRY remove Cache
6. BanRooster remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed12:16
Rooster 53%MARKandLARRY 47%
The model gave 53% on Rooster — the map was taken by MARKandLARRY.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Rooster 50%MARKandLARRY 50%
The model gave 50% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Infernoprediction correct13:8
Rooster 63%MARKandLARRY 37%
The model gave 63% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 66%
Series resultRooster 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3