European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Misa#115 in the world · win 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
47%50%
Misa · 30 mapsnearly even -3%Honvéd · 40 maps
MirageMisa ban
48%47%
Misa · 19 mapsnearly even +1%Honvéd · 32 maps
Cachepossible decider
44%40%
Misa · 23 mapsnearly even +4%Honvéd · 11 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
50%45%
Misa · 24 mapsedge Misa +5%Honvéd · 7 maps
InfernoMisa ban
53%36%
Misa · 13 mapsedge Misa +17%Honvéd · 18 maps
DefaultHonvéd pick
33%56%
Misa · 8 mapsedge Honvéd +23%Honvéd · 14 maps
NukeHonvéd ban
50%56%
Misa · 16 mapsedge Honvéd +6%Honvéd · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMisa remove Mirage
2. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
3. PickMisa take Dust2
4. PickHonvéd take Default
5. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
6. BanMisa remove Inferno
DeciderCache (44% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
Misa 48%Honvéd 52%
The model gave 52% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Anubisprediction correct13:8
Misa 58%Honvéd 42%
The model gave 58% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
Misa 47%Honvéd 53%
The model gave 53% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 55%
Series resultMisa 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3