ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
Misa#115 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
JUMBO#243 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2JUMBO ban
71%50%
Misa · 10 mapsedge Misa +21%JUMBO · 0 maps
MirageMisa ban
45%50%
Misa · 7 mapsedge JUMBO +5%JUMBO · 0 maps
NukeJUMBO ban
55%50%
Misa · 7 mapsedge Misa +5%JUMBO · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
44%50%
Misa · 5 mapsedge JUMBO +6%JUMBO · 0 maps
AnubisMisa ban
38%50%
Misa · 4 mapsedge JUMBO +12%JUMBO · 0 maps
OverpassJUMBO pick
33%50%
Misa · 2 mapsedge JUMBO +17%JUMBO · 0 maps
DefaultMisa pick
60%50%
Misa · 1 mapedge Misa +10%JUMBO · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMisa remove Mirage
2. BanJUMBO remove Dust2
3. PickMisa take Default
4. PickJUMBO take Overpass
5. BanJUMBO remove Nuke
6. BanMisa remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
Misa 42%JUMBO 58%
The model gave 58% on JUMBO — the map was taken by Misa.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Misa 74%JUMBO 26%
The model gave 74% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 60%
Series resultMisa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2