ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Misa#115 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Strael Bora#239 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Strael Bora ban
51%50%
Misa · 31 mapnearly even +1%Strael Bora · 0 maps
AnubisMisa pick
43%29%
Misa · 19 mapsedge Misa +14%Strael Bora · 3 maps
MirageMisa ban
42%50%
Misa · 22 mapsedge Strael Bora +8%Strael Bora · 0 maps
NukeMisa ban
50%44%
Misa · 16 mapsedge Misa +6%Strael Bora · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
46%57%
Misa · 9 mapsedge Strael Bora +11%Strael Bora · 3 maps
CacheStrael Bora ban
40%50%
Misa · 11 mapsedge Strael Bora +10%Strael Bora · 0 maps
DefaultStrael Bora pick
45%50%
Misa · 7 mapsedge Strael Bora +5%Strael Bora · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMisa remove Mirage
2. BanStrael Bora remove Dust2
3. PickMisa take Anubis
4. PickStrael Bora take Default
5. BanStrael Bora remove Cache
6. BanMisa remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (46% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
Misa 68%Strael Bora 32%
The model gave 68% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
Misa 36%Strael Bora 64%
The model gave 64% on Strael Bora — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 55%
Series resultMisa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2