IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Monte#23 in the world · win 13:8series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 13:8
BIG#35 in the world · loss 8:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
43%43%
Monte · 3 mapsnearly even +0%BIG · 3 maps
Dust2BIG ban
44%60%
Monte · 5 mapsedge BIG +16%BIG · 1 map
NukeBIG ban
43%43%
Monte · 3 mapsnearly even +0%BIG · 3 maps
MirageMonte ban
60%63%
Monte · 1 mapnearly even -3%BIG · 4 maps
OverpassMonte ban
40%33%
Monte · 1 mapedge Monte +7%BIG · 2 maps
AnubisBIG ban
60%40%
Monte · 1 mapedge Monte +20%BIG · 1 map
InfernoMonte ban
50%60%
Monte · 0 mapsedge BIG +10%BIG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMonte remove Overpass
2. BanBIG remove Anubis
3. BanMonte remove Inferno
4. BanBIG remove Nuke
5. BanMonte remove Mirage
6. BanBIG remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (43% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
Monte 47%BIG 53%
The model gave 53% on BIG — the map was taken by Monte.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonte · 61%
Series resultMonte 13:8
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1