PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monte#23 in the world · win 2:1series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The Huns#123 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Monte pick
57%29%
Monte · 3 mapsedge Monte +28%The Huns · 3 maps
NukeMonte ban
33%43%
Monte · 2 mapsedge The Huns +10%The Huns · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%33%
Monte · 2 mapsedge Monte +17%The Huns · 2 maps
DefaultThe Huns pick
50%71%
Monte · 0 mapsedge The Huns +21%The Huns · 3 maps
AnubisThe Huns ban
60%50%
Monte · 1 mapedge Monte +10%The Huns · 0 maps
InfernoThe Huns ban
50%60%
Monte · 0 mapsedge The Huns +10%The Huns · 1 map
MirageMonte ban
50%40%
Monte · 0 mapsedge Monte +10%The Huns · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMonte remove Mirage
2. BanThe Huns remove Anubis
3. PickMonte take Dust2
4. PickThe Huns take Default
5. BanThe Huns remove Inferno
6. BanMonte remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:2
Monte 37%The Huns 63%
The model gave 63% on The Huns — the map was taken by Monte.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Monte 79%The Huns 21%
The model gave 79% on Monte — the map was taken by The Huns.
Mirageprediction correct16:12
Monte 60%The Huns 40%
The model gave 60% on Monte — the map was taken by Monte.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonte · 76%
Series resultMonte 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3