ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#142 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BASEMENT BOYS#100 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
65%60%
MOUZ NXT · 19 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +5%BASEMENT BOYS · 16 maps
Dust2MOUZ NXT ban
25%50%
MOUZ NXT · 16 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +25%BASEMENT BOYS · 12 maps
MirageBASEMENT BOYS pick
28%67%
MOUZ NXT · 14 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +39%BASEMENT BOYS · 14 maps
AncientBASEMENT BOYS ban
67%44%
MOUZ NXT · 8 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +23%BASEMENT BOYS · 14 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%60%
MOUZ NXT · 14 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 6 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
44%56%
MOUZ NXT · 5 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +12%BASEMENT BOYS · 5 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
40%38%
MOUZ NXT · 1 mapnearly even +2%BASEMENT BOYS · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Mirage
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Ancient
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Dust2
DeciderCache (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
MOUZ NXT 58%BASEMENT BOYS 42%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
MOUZ NXT 23%BASEMENT BOYS 77%
The model gave 77% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 58%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2