ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#142 in the world · win 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2MOUZ NXT ban
21%63%
MOUZ NXT · 15 mapsedge Dark Moon +42%Dark Moon · 4 maps
MirageDark Moon pick
28%50%
MOUZ NXT · 14 mapsedge Dark Moon +22%Dark Moon · 4 maps
NukeDark Moon ban
64%50%
MOUZ NXT · 18 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +14%Dark Moon · 0 maps
CacheDark Moon ban
50%50%
MOUZ NXT · 14 mapsnearly even +0%Dark Moon · 0 maps
AncientMOUZ NXT pick
67%33%
MOUZ NXT · 8 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +34%Dark Moon · 2 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
44%50%
MOUZ NXT · 5 mapsedge Dark Moon +6%Dark Moon · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%60%
MOUZ NXT · 2 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%Dark Moon · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Dust2
2. BanDark Moon remove Nuke
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Ancient
4. PickDark Moon take Mirage
5. BanDark Moon remove Cache
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed16:14
MOUZ NXT 12%Dark Moon 88%
The model gave 88% on Dark Moon — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
MOUZ NXT 66%Dark Moon 34%
The model gave 66% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 63%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2