NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Enjoy#199 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
25%53%
MOUZ NXT · 8 mapsedge Enjoy +28%Enjoy · 11 maps
Dust2MOUZ NXT ban
33%53%
MOUZ NXT · 5 mapsedge Enjoy +20%Enjoy · 11 maps
CacheMOUZ NXT pick
67%57%
MOUZ NXT · 5 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +10%Enjoy · 10 maps
NukeEnjoy ban
60%38%
MOUZ NXT · 6 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +22%Enjoy · 4 maps
AncientEnjoy pick
60%58%
MOUZ NXT · 1 mapnearly even +2%Enjoy · 8 maps
AnubisEnjoy ban
43%63%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge Enjoy +20%Enjoy · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%71%
MOUZ NXT · 2 mapsnearly even -4%Enjoy · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
2. BanEnjoy remove Nuke
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Cache
4. PickEnjoy take Ancient
5. BanEnjoy remove Anubis
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (67% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed11:13
MOUZ NXT 63%Enjoy 37%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by Enjoy.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
MOUZ NXT 49%Enjoy 51%
The model gave 51% on Enjoy — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Dust2prediction correct2:13
MOUZ NXT 30%Enjoy 70%
The model gave 70% on Enjoy — the map was taken by Enjoy.
Model check result
Model favoriteEnjoy · 51%
Series resultEnjoy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3