ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-MANA pick
27%46%
MOUZ NXT · 7 mapsedge ex-MANA +19%ex-MANA · 20 maps
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
31%60%
MOUZ NXT · 9 mapsedge ex-MANA +29%ex-MANA · 11 maps
Ancientpossible decider
71%47%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +24%ex-MANA · 11 maps
Nukeex-MANA ban
67%30%
MOUZ NXT · 8 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +37%ex-MANA · 6 maps
CacheMOUZ NXT pick
50%50%
MOUZ NXT · 8 mapsnearly even +0%ex-MANA · 2 maps
Anubisex-MANA ban
43%33%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +10%ex-MANA · 5 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
50%38%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +12%ex-MANA · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
2. Banex-MANA remove Nuke
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Cache
4. Pickex-MANA take Dust2
5. Banex-MANA remove Anubis
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (71% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct16:14
MOUZ NXT 53%ex-MANA 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Dust2prediction correct2:13
MOUZ NXT 28%ex-MANA 72%
The model gave 72% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Mirageprediction correct3:13
MOUZ NXT 23%ex-MANA 77%
The model gave 77% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-MANA · 59%
Series resultex-MANA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3