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LeonBet Masters Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
FaZe Up Next#151 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
60%50%
MOUZ NXT · 21 mapedge MOUZ NXT +10%FaZe Up Next · 2 maps
Dust2FaZe Up Next ban
24%40%
MOUZ NXT · 17 mapsedge FaZe Up Next +16%FaZe Up Next · 1 map
Cachepossible decider
50%40%
MOUZ NXT · 14 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +10%FaZe Up Next · 1 map
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
28%40%
MOUZ NXT · 14 mapsedge FaZe Up Next +12%FaZe Up Next · 1 map
AncientFaZe Up Next pick
67%60%
MOUZ NXT · 8 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%FaZe Up Next · 1 map
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
44%60%
MOUZ NXT · 5 mapsedge FaZe Up Next +16%FaZe Up Next · 1 map
DefaultFaZe Up Next ban
71%50%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +21%FaZe Up Next · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
2. BanFaZe Up Next remove Default
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
4. PickFaZe Up Next take Ancient
5. BanFaZe Up Next remove Dust2
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
DeciderCache (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
MOUZ NXT 60%FaZe Up Next 40%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Mirageprediction correct12:16
MOUZ NXT 34%FaZe Up Next 66%
The model gave 66% on FaZe Up Next — the map was taken by FaZe Up Next.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
MOUZ NXT 60%FaZe Up Next 40%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteFaZe Up Next · 57%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3