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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheHYPERSPIRIT pick
50%57%
MOUZ NXT · 16 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +7%HYPERSPIRIT · 10 maps
Dust2HYPERSPIRIT ban
30%40%
MOUZ NXT · 19 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +10%HYPERSPIRIT · 6 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
59%50%
MOUZ NXT · 25 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +9%HYPERSPIRIT · 0 maps
Miragepossible decider
24%60%
MOUZ NXT · 17 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +36%HYPERSPIRIT · 6 maps
AncientMOUZ NXT pick
60%31%
MOUZ NXT · 11 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +29%HYPERSPIRIT · 9 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
40%50%
MOUZ NXT · 6 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +10%HYPERSPIRIT · 6 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
40%46%
MOUZ NXT · 1 mapedge HYPERSPIRIT +6%HYPERSPIRIT · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
2. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Ancient
4. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Cache
5. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Dust2
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (24% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
MOUZ NXT 43%HYPERSPIRIT 57%
The model gave 57% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Cacheprediction correct7:13
MOUZ NXT 40%HYPERSPIRIT 60%
The model gave 60% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
MOUZ NXT 17%HYPERSPIRIT 83%
The model gave 83% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 50%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3