Urban Riga Open Season 6 · BO1
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · win 13:7series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 13:7
LEO SEloss 7:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
31%50%
MOUZ NXT · 9 mapsedge LEO SE +19%LEO SE · 2 maps
Dust2LEO SE ban
50%50%
MOUZ NXT · 8 mapsnearly even +0%LEO SE · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%40%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +17%LEO SE · 1 map
NukeLEO SE ban
50%50%
MOUZ NXT · 4 mapsnearly even +0%LEO SE · 0 maps
OverpassMOUZ NXT ban
29%50%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge LEO SE +21%LEO SE · 0 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
40%40%
MOUZ NXT · 1 mapnearly even +0%LEO SE · 1 map
CacheLEO SE ban
67%50%
MOUZ NXT · 2 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +17%LEO SE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
2. BanLEO SE remove Nuke
3. BanMOUZ NXT remove Overpass
4. BanLEO SE remove Cache
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
6. BanLEO SE remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (57% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
MOUZ NXT 50%LEO SE 50%
The model gave 50% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 59%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 13:7
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1