NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LPH#150 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
59%53%
MOUZ NXT · 23 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +6%LPH · 11 maps
Dust2possible decider
24%55%
MOUZ NXT · 17 mapsedge LPH +31%LPH · 7 maps
AncientLPH pick
64%56%
MOUZ NXT · 10 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +8%LPH · 12 maps
CacheLPH ban
47%29%
MOUZ NXT · 15 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +18%LPH · 3 maps
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
26%67%
MOUZ NXT · 15 mapsedge LPH +41%LPH · 2 maps
AnubisLPH ban
40%40%
MOUZ NXT · 6 mapsnearly even +0%LPH · 6 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
40%67%
MOUZ NXT · 1 mapedge LPH +27%LPH · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
2. BanLPH remove Cache
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
4. PickLPH take Ancient
5. BanLPH remove Anubis
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (24% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
MOUZ NXT 59%LPH 41%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by LPH.
Ancientprediction missed3:13
MOUZ NXT 55%LPH 45%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by LPH.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 51%
Series resultLPH 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2