ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · win 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Misa#115 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
46%52%
MOUZ NXT · 9 mapsedge Misa +6%Misa · 27 maps
MirageMisa ban
24%41%
MOUZ NXT · 13 mapsedge Misa +17%Misa · 18 maps
NukeMisa ban
55%47%
MOUZ NXT · 7 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +8%Misa · 13 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
43%47%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsnearly even -4%Misa · 13 maps
CacheMOUZ NXT pick
63%36%
MOUZ NXT · 4 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +27%Misa · 7 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
50%54%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Misa · 9 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%56%
MOUZ NXT · 2 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +11%Misa · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
2. BanMisa remove Nuke
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Cache
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Mirage
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (67% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
MOUZ NXT 42%Misa 58%
The model gave 58% on Misa — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Nukeprediction missed13:16
MOUZ NXT 60%Misa 40%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by Misa.
Mirageprediction missed19:17
MOUZ NXT 31%Misa 69%
The model gave 69% on Misa — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 51%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3