ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SPARTA#96 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
25%69%
MOUZ NXT · 8 mapsedge SPARTA +44%SPARTA · 28 maps
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
29%57%
MOUZ NXT · 10 mapsedge SPARTA +28%SPARTA · 17 maps
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
67%41%
MOUZ NXT · 8 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +26%SPARTA · 13 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
71%43%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +28%SPARTA · 17 maps
Cachepossible decider
54%45%
MOUZ NXT · 9 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +9%SPARTA · 7 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
50%46%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsnearly even +4%SPARTA · 9 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
43%43%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsnearly even +0%SPARTA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
2. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
4. PickSPARTA take Dust2
5. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
DeciderCache (54% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
MOUZ NXT 79%SPARTA 21%
The model gave 79% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
MOUZ NXT 12%SPARTA 88%
The model gave 88% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
MOUZ NXT 74%SPARTA 26%
The model gave 74% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 65%
Series resultSPARTA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3