PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora#6 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Aurora pick
50%50%
MOUZ · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Aurora · 4 maps
NukeAurora ban
57%43%
MOUZ · 3 mapsedge MOUZ +14%Aurora · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%60%
MOUZ · 2 mapsedge Aurora +10%Aurora · 1 map
AncientAurora ban
50%50%
MOUZ · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Aurora · 0 maps
InfernoMOUZ pick
67%50%
MOUZ · 2 mapsedge MOUZ +17%Aurora · 0 maps
AnubisMOUZ ban
50%60%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge Aurora +10%Aurora · 1 map
OverpassMOUZ ban
50%60%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge Aurora +10%Aurora · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ remove Anubis
2. BanAurora remove Ancient
3. PickMOUZ take Inferno
4. PickAurora take Dust2
5. BanAurora remove Nuke
6. BanMOUZ remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
MOUZ 47%Aurora 53%
The model gave 53% on Aurora — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
MOUZ 67%Aurora 33%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 53%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2