PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#4 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
FURIA#3 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMOUZ pick
76%57%
MOUZ · 17 mapsedge MOUZ +19%FURIA · 17 maps
Dust2FURIA ban
61%56%
MOUZ · 14 mapsedge MOUZ +5%FURIA · 14 maps
Nukepossible decider
65%56%
MOUZ · 13 mapsedge MOUZ +9%FURIA · 14 maps
AncientMOUZ ban
38%50%
MOUZ · 9 mapsedge FURIA +12%FURIA · 14 maps
CacheFURIA ban
50%53%
MOUZ · 8 mapsnearly even -3%FURIA · 13 maps
InfernoFURIA pick
67%73%
MOUZ · 8 mapsedge FURIA +6%FURIA · 11 maps
AnubisMOUZ ban
50%33%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge MOUZ +17%FURIA · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ remove Anubis
2. BanFURIA remove Dust2
3. PickMOUZ take Mirage
4. PickFURIA take Inferno
5. BanFURIA remove Cache
6. BanMOUZ remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (65% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed6:13
MOUZ 53%FURIA 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the map was taken by FURIA.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
MOUZ 73%FURIA 27%
The model gave 73% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
MOUZ 47%FURIA 53%
The model gave 53% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 55%
Series resultFURIA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3