PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#11 in the world · win 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Gentle Mates#36 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
Not enough maps played over 3 months to build a veto prediction.
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed16:12
MOUZ 47%Gentle Mates 53%
The model gave 53% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Mirageprediction missed4:13
MOUZ 53%Gentle Mates 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
MOUZ 50%Gentle Mates 50%
The model gave 50% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 52%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3